Satellite Technology Feature Article
Post-Shuttle: China Space Program Has a Long Way to Go
By Doug Mohney, Contributing Editor
China has few friends in America when it comes to space cooperation. Some view the country as the leading threat to U.S. technology leadership in the 21st century while others wish to shun the country for its abysmal human rights record. Perhaps there's no good answer, but for better or worse, the Department of Defense (DoD) wants to engage in a regular dialogue with China on outer space usage, reports Reuters.
DoD wants to talk to China to make sure both sides have a clear understanding on what is and isn't acceptable in space, to reduce the risk of misunderstandings escalating into major incidents – or worse. In 2007, China blew one of its old weather satellites out of the sky with little warning to demonstrate its anti-satellite capability. The military demonstration added plenty of space junk to low Earth orbit, annoying satellite operators and leading to a 2008 demonstration shoot down of a crippled U.S. spy satellite by the Navy.
On Capitol Hill, Representative Frank Wolf (R-VA) doesn't want NASA or the White House talking to China at all regarding joint civilian-based space projects and inserted specific language in the FY 2011 Continuing Resolution to block the use of federal funds for any sort of cooperative policy because of China's human rights issues.
Others worry that any sort of civilian technical cooperation with the Chinese will simply add to the country's knowledge base and rolled into building better missiles and weapons. U.S. International Traffic In Arms Regulations (ITAR) forbid the export of military and defense related technologies, including satellites, to other countries. U.S. satellite and rocket component manufacturers cannot export technology or risk severe penalties; one result is satellite operators can't use cheaper Chinese launchers to put U.S.-built satellites into orbit.
Finally, there's a “Fear China” camp that believes the country could dominate the “High Ground” of space in the next decade with a manned mission to the Moon, leaving the U.S. behind.
It's the last camp that stretches credibility. The Chinese only launched its first astronaut in 2003 and have put a total of just six into orbit, with the last one launched in 2008. Perhaps as early as next month, the Chinese will put up the Tiangong 1 (“Heavenly Palace”) orbital lab module as the first part of an orbital space station, and have announced two planned manned flights to the module in 2012, including the country's first manned docking. After that, China has plans to put people on the Moon by 2025 and ultimately establish a base there. Longer term, the country would like to head to Mars in the 2040-2050 timeframe.
With all due respect to the Chinese manned space program, it has a long way to go to demonstrate long-term flight capability in space. Meanwhile, the Russians will be paid around $300 million to conduct a loop around the moon for two tourists with a flight targeted at 2015. It is not inconceivable to think that commercial space may make it to the surface of the before the Chinese if there's a sufficiently well-heeled tourist willing to write a check.
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Doug Mohney is a contributing editor for TMCnet and a 20-year veteran of the ICT space. To read more of his articles, please visit columnist page.
Edited by Jennifer Russell




