A recent survey by the Pew (News - Alert) Research Center, for example, suggests 24 percent of respondents say they have taken steps to save on their cable or satellite service or have done away with the service altogether. But so far, there is no evidence consumers actually are behaving that way, as first quarter financial results continue to roll in. All we can say so far is that AT&T and Verizon (News - Alert) are seeing no weakness in their growth rates.

 

One might argue that consumers are switching to Verizon or AT&T (News - Alert) alternatives as a way of “saving money.” Even so, the magnitude of the AT&T and Verizon gains are incompatible with a real-world change in behavior by anything close to 24 percent of users. So far, the telco results suggest first-quarter cable and satellite results will be roughly in line with fourth-quarter 2008 results.

 

Should that happen, what we can conclude is that consumers are, in fact, not behaving as they say they will.

 

The Pew Center says there has been a decline over the past three years in attitudes toward cable and satellite television service. Today, less than a quarter (23 percent) of the public say such service is essential, down 10 points from 2006. But unlike attitudes toward television, views on cable and satellite service have declined more uniformly by age; if anything, it's those 65 or older who are more likely to have changed their minds about it (a 13-point decline among those 65 or older, compared with an 11-point decline among those under 30).

 

But at least so far, consumers do not seem to be behaving as their poll responses would predict. So far, only AT&T and Verizon of the leading video providers have reported first quarter earnings. But at neither firm was there evidence that consumers are abandoning their multi-channel TV subscriptions.

 

In fact, both providers continued to add net new subscribers. Verizon added 299,000 net new FiOS (News - Alert) TV customers in the first quarter, bringing the video customer base up 83.8 percent compared with the first quarter 2008.

 

AT&T added a record 284,000 net new AT&T U-verse TV subscribers in the first quarter.

 

Of course, both AT&T and Verizon are taking market share away from incumbent cable TV providers, so growth at these two firms does not yet settle the question. We will have to wait for reports from the leading cable TV and satellite providers before we can match telco gains and cable losses, plus the satellite changes, if any.